This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Surprising Push for Glory
Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.