A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
